Jayden Daniels will be under duress vs. Aaron Glenn’s Lions defense, and that should mean a rise in safe throws to tight end Zach Ertz, per Jason Logan’s NFL betting picks.

The Matchup

The NFL Divisional Round pairing of the Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions is a matchup that would make Kenny Rogers smile. “The Gambler” would be a big fan of these two teams and their risk-taking head coaches.

But when it comes to Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and the task of slowing down Washington’s dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels, my Commanders vs. Lions predictions believe Detroit won’t leave anything to chance.

The Lions’ defense is determined to contain the shifty Daniels to the pocket, take away his downfield weapons, and have the first-year phenom settling for shorter throws to tight end Zach Ertz.

Commanders vs Lions Prediction

Commanders vs Lions Best Bet
Zach Ertz Over 3.5 receptions (-113 at Caesars)

My Analysis

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is at his best when he can move around behind the line of scrimmage, avoid the pressure, and break down the defense. We saw that on display against Tampa Bay in the Wild Card win last weekend.

The Detroit Lions have a similarly aggressive approach on defense as the Buccaneers, with blitz-heavy schemes that want to chase down the QB. But we’ve seen Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn “zig” when the opponent believes he’ll “zag.”

Glenn put in a resume-building performance against Minnesota in a crucial Week 18 spot, constantly crossing up the Vikings with his game plan. The big takeaway from that outing was the Lions’ man-heavy coverage erasing Sam Darnold’s first two looks, forcing him to hold on to the ball while Detroit’s ultra-aggressive pass rush closed in.

I don’t expect Glenn to bring the all-out blitz against Daniels, who has rated out among the better QBs against those extra rushers. Many NFL analysts predict a more passive pass rush from the Lions, with an emphasis on containing the speedy rookie to the pocket.

From there, Detroit’s man coverage will take away Daniels’ top threats like Terry McLaurin and have him settling for his third progression and checkdown options. If we look at Darnold’s passes against Detroit, he targeted tight end T.J. Hockenson eight times. That sets up a busy day for Washington veteran TE Zach Ertz in the Divisional Round.

Ertz has been Daniels’ safety blanket in his first year. He finished the regular season second on the team with 91 targets, hauling 66 of those passes for an average of 3.9 receptions per game.

The Commanders’ tight end, who ranks as one of the more active route runners among his position, drew only four balls in the Wild Card round with two catches for 23 yards. However, Washington went run-heavy in the second half, especially on the final game-winning drive.

With game-script calling for a high-scoring finish and the Commanders to be trailing, there will be plenty of passes to go around. Ertz drew at least five targets in six of the last eight regular season outings, recording four or more catches in five of those contests.

The Lions have done a solid job on rival tight ends on the year, allowing the third-lowest yardage total to the position. But with the defensive injuries piling up in the back half of the schedule, opposing TEs were finding cracks in the coverage for bigger days. I am showing them plenty of respect though, which is why I’m taking the receptions Over and not Ertz’s yardage total.

Player projections for the Divisional Round come in above Ertz’s receptions average, with most models calling for four catches on Saturday. Given the way this game is shaping up and the Lions’ linebackers having to keep one eye on Daniels, the window is there for Ertz to go Over the reception total of 3.5.

Commanders vs Lions Same-Game Parlay

Ertz’s projections call for four catches, and the Lions defense will force Daniels to check it down to his TE.

Olamide Zaccheaus has been one of Daniels’ favorite options in the home stretch, and while he had a quiet Wild Card Round, he’s demonstrated a nose for the end zone.

How often does Washington have the better defense on the field? That could be the case against this decimated Detroit stop unit. I think this game is closer than books predict.